5 minWorld
Bessent Says Iran's Oil Lifeline to China Will Run Out Within Two Weeks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran has about 15 million barrels of oil left for delivery to China and will soon have nothing left to trade, as the Trump administration presses its economic campaign and weighs a new nuclear proposal from Tehran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that Iran will complete its remaining oil shipments to China within two weeks, leaving Tehran with nothing left to trade as the Trump administration intensifies its economic pressure campaign against the government in Tehran.
Bessent said only about 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remain out for delivery now that the United States is blockading the ports. He described the dwindling shipments as evidence that Operation Economic Outcast has left Tehran economically isolated.
«They will have nothing to trade for anything, probably within the next two weeks. They are going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have nothing,» Bessent said Sunday.
The Treasury chief said he believed Iran was feeling the pressure, which he linked to its renewed interest in striking a deal. President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on Saturday, telling Axios on Sunday that Iran had overplayed its hand.
«I expect more talks with Iran this week,» Trump said in a phone interview. «They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.»
Tehran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a heavily trafficked waterway critical to global oil shipping. Bessent said the strait is already open.
«We're averaging now 15 to 22 million barrels a day. It was at about 20 pre-conflict,» he said. «The score is the United States, one billion — more than one billion barrels have gotten out — Iran, zero.»
Bessent added that the purpose of Operation Economic Outcast is to ensure Iran adheres to the terms of any future deal. «They are isolated from the world. They're a pariah state. And my job is to make sure that, when they come with a deal, that they want to stick to it. They did not stick to the MOU,» he said, referring to a memorandum of understanding. «And, next time, if there is a deal — that's at President Trump's discretion — that they will stick to it, because they are on their knees.»
The remarks came as the administration weighs its next move on Iran. Trump told Axios that he is «always thinking about» resuming strikes against Iran, an admission that underscored the fragility of the current pause in hostilities.
Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal has drawn scrutiny from analysts who question whether Washington is correctly reading Tehran's position. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London, told Al Jazeera that Trump may be the one who overplayed his hand by assuming that time is improving the U.S. bargaining position.
«The gamble cuts both ways,» Krieg said. «The danger is that he is confusing Iranian pain with Iranian willingness to capitulate. Those are not the same thing.»
Krieg warned that the standoff could backfire. «Trump thinks Iran's clock is running faster than America's. Tehran thinks the opposite: that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, global energy markets and ultimately Trump himself have a lower tolerance for prolonged disruption than Iran has for economic punishment,» he said.
Foreign policy expert Trita Parsi warned earlier this month that the risk extends beyond economics, saying all signs point to a major escalation between the United States, Iran and Israel that could be initiated by Tehran a week or two before the midterm elections.
The economic pressure campaign has centered on Iran's oil exports, the backbone of its revenue. With the U.S. blockading ports and only a small volume of crude still en route to China, the administration argues that Tehran's ability to fund its priorities and sustain its regional posture is narrowing by the day.
Bessent's timeline, if accurate, would mark a turning point in the campaign. Iran has long relied on Chinese purchases to cushion the impact of sanctions, and the loss of that outlet would leave it with few large-scale buyers. Whether that translates into a deal acceptable to the White House remains uncertain, with Trump saying further talks are expected this week.
For now, the administration is projecting confidence that its pressure strategy is working, while critics warn that misreading Iran's tolerance for pain could produce a dangerous escalation rather than a diplomatic breakthrough.
2
