4 minEconomy
U.S. Existing-Home Sales Hit Four Straight Years of Historically Low Turnover
Existing-home sales have remained stuck near a transaction floor since mid-2022, even as new-home sales hold near pre-pandemic levels and builders absorb costs through incentives and price cuts.
U.S. existing-home sales have now spent four consecutive years at historically low levels, a stretch that has persisted through both resilient markets in the Northeast and Midwest and softer conditions across the Sun Belt. The September reading, published this week, marks the fourth straight year in which resale turnover has sat in the bottom quarter of its historical range once adjusted for population and the number of owner-occupied households.
The stagnation dates to mid-2022, when the pandemic-era surge in housing demand faded, mortgage rates climbed sharply and the cost of trading one home for another fell out of balance. Since then, monthly reports showing existing-home sales rising or falling have mostly reflected modest swings in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate published by the National Association of Realtors. Unadjusted figures, which account for normal seasonal patterns, show that the pace of transactions has barely moved.
ResiClub's Resale Turnover Index, which adjusts for changes in owner-occupied households to allow comparisons across decades, places the market in the bottom 25th percentile for four straight years — a threshold the firm describes as historically low. Much of the activity that does occur reflects what the firm calls the «Ds of Housing»: sales forced by life events such as death, divorce, disability and other circumstances that require a household to move.
New-home sales present a different picture. While they remain below their pandemic boom peaks, they are roughly in line with 2018 and 2019 levels. That resilience has come at a cost to builders, who have protected sales volume by cutting net effective prices through mortgage rate buydowns, cash back at closing and outright price reductions, particularly in Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas. Those incentives have weighed on builder margins.
The pressure is not evenly distributed. In local markets where active inventory has risen sharply and existing-home sales are pressing below the transaction floor, some sellers will need to adjust their expectations if they want to close a deal. Early signs of that are appearing in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Texas, Florida and Colorado as the market enters its seasonally slow period.
The persistence of low turnover carries consequences for the broader economy. Real estate agents, mortgage lenders, title companies and movers depend on transaction volume, and four years of depressed resale activity has thinned that business. Households that might otherwise move are staying put, whether because of locked-in low mortgage rates, the difficulty of finding a replacement home or the cost of financing a new purchase.
For now, the data point to a market that has settled into a long plateau rather than a sharp correction. Sales continue, but largely out of necessity rather than choice, and the gap between new and existing homes has widened as builders use incentives to keep buyers engaged while resale activity remains near its floor.
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