4 minSociety
Dementia Cases Projected to More Than Double by 2050, Study Finds
New research published in JAMA Psychology projects annual dementia diagnoses will reach 24.7 million by 2050, up from 11.4 million in 2023, with women and residents of low- and middle-income countries facing the highest risk.
The number of people diagnosed with dementia each year is projected to more than double by 2050, climbing from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million, according to a new study by Australian researchers published in JAMA Psychology. The findings point to an accelerating global health challenge that will place what the study's authors describe as enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems, and economies worldwide.
The research, led by the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing at the University of New South Wales Sydney, analyzed data from more than 38,000 people diagnosed with dementia across 18 countries and territories on six continents. It found that incidence rates are somewhat higher among women, at 10.6 cases per 1,000 people compared with 8.6 for men. But the disparity was even more pronounced by geography: low- and middle-income countries recorded 13.6 cases per 1,000 people, versus 8.3 in high-income countries.
«The higher incidence we observed in low- and middle-income countries is particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population aging while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,» said Perminder Sachdev, co-director of the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing and a senior author of the study.
Henry Brodaty, also a co-director of the center and a co-author, said the projected surge demands a broad response rather than a reactive one. «We cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,» he said. «We need to act across the spectrum—from reducing modifiable risk factors and identifying people at risk earlier, through to improving diagnosis, treatment and care.»
Dementia, a condition that affects memory, thinking, and the ability to perform daily activities, is more common after age 65. As of 2021, an estimated 57 million people worldwide were living with dementia, according to the World Health Organization, and it ranks as the seventh leading cause of death. The WHO has estimated that dementia cost economies around the world about $1.3 trillion as of 2019, underscoring the financial toll that a surge in new cases would carry.
Aging populations are one of the primary drivers behind the expected increase in cases. The researchers did not pinpoint an exact reason why dementia affects populations differently, but they said the prospect of more cases warrants urgency in investing in prevention efforts. Understanding which populations are most at risk will be key to developing prevention, diagnosis, and care strategies, the authors noted.
Dr. Liron Sinvani, director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging and a professor at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research in New York, described the trend as an accelerating epidemic that demands immediate attention. She emphasized that the countries facing the largest wave of cases also have the most limited infrastructure to respond.
«Health systems must prepare for this massive increase in diagnostic and care demand, and this is especially true for these low- and middle-income countries where the growth will be fastest,» Sinvani said. «We know that dementia care requires a lot of caregiver support and is very costly. We will need a better infrastructure.»
The study's authors say the findings should serve as a call to action for governments, health systems, and researchers to prioritize prevention and early identification, particularly in regions where resources are scarcest and aging is proceeding most rapidly.
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