President Donald Trump’s formidable sway over the Republican Party and the strength of his endorsements in primary contests face a critical examination Tuesday as Arizona holds its primary elections. The outcomes in several key races, including a competitive congressional district and the gubernatorial nomination, could have significant implications for the midterm battles for the House majority and control of state governorships.
Trump is backing Representative Andy Biggs, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Biggs is considered the frontrunner in a field that also includes longtime Representative David Schweikert, concrete pumping contractor Scott Neely, and business owner Ken Miceli. The winner will face Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in the general election. Hobbs, a former Arizona secretary of state, narrowly defeated Republican nominee Kari Lake four years ago and is unopposed for renomination.
The race for the Republican attorney general nomination has become particularly heated, with state Senate President Warren Petersen and military attorney Rodney Glassman exchanging sharp attacks. The victor will challenge Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes in the general election.
In Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, a key swing district anchored in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs, Trump is backing Jay Feely, a former Arizona Cardinals professional football player and former CBS Sports NFL analyst. Feely faces former state lawmaker Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough for the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, former TV anchor Marlene Galán-Woods and former state Representative Amish Shah are competing in a rematch. Shah, an emergency room physician, won their 2024 faceoff. Galán-Woods, a former Republican, has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as well as top Democrats Senator Mark Kelly and former Governor Janet Napolitano. Rick McCartney and Jonathan Treble are also on the ballot. The midterm race in this district is one of two or three dozen nationwide that will determine whether the GOP retains its razor-thin House majority.
In the race to replace Biggs in Arizona’s 5th District, located in the southeastern Phoenix suburbs including parts of Mesa, Trump is backing former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Lamb faces construction contractor Daniel Keenan, who has made sexual misconduct and abuse-of-power allegations against Lamb a central issue in his campaign. The Pinal County attorney cleared Lamb of criminal wrongdoing last month, and Trump reaffirmed his endorsement of Lamb earlier this month despite the controversy. The winner of the Republican primary is considered the clear favorite in this solidly red district.
Trump’s endorsement power has been on full display in GOP primaries this spring and summer, with his candidates ousting incumbents he targeted in Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, and Louisiana. However, his streak was interrupted in early June when his last-minute endorsement of Representative Randy Feenstra of Iowa in the race to succeed retiring Governor Kim Reynolds was not enough to secure victory. Feenstra was narrowly defeated by Zach Lahn, a businessman and farmer backed by the political wings of the Make America Healthy Again movement and Turning Point USA.
In Georgia and Alabama, Trump-backed candidates won two of three top races in key GOP primary runoff elections last month, with the lone setback coming against a billionaire businessman who spent over $100 million of his own money on his campaign. A week later, Trump-backed first-time candidate Anthony Constantino, a businessman and former boxer, defeated Robert Smullen, a retired Marine Corps colonel and New York assemblyman, in the race to succeed retiring Representative Elise Stefanik. In South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial runoff, Trump supported both Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who won in a landslide. The president also celebrated victory in Louisiana, where Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, lost his renomination bid to Trump-backed Representative Julia Letlow.
The Arizona primaries will serve as a barometer of Trump’s continued influence within the party and could shape the political landscape for the remainder of the midterm cycle.
