The race for Maine's U.S. Senate seat has tightened significantly after Democrats replaced their nominee, setting up a high-stakes contest between longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins and state Senate President Troy Jackson. The Fox News Power Rankings now rate the Maine Senate race as a toss-up, making it one of roughly a dozen contests that will determine whether Democrats can reclaim the chamber or Republicans maintain their slim majority.
A new Pine Tree Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Jackson holding a three-point edge over Collins among likely general election voters in Maine. The poll, conducted over the past seven days, underscores the competitive nature of the race in a state that has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections but has a history of supporting moderate Republicans like Collins.
Jackson is on track to replace former nominee Graham Platner at the Maine Democratic Party's nominating convention in Bangor on Saturday. Platner dropped out of the race earlier this month after an explosive report surfaced containing an allegation of rape from a woman he previously dated. Platner denied the allegation but stepped aside amid calls from top Democrats in Maine and nationally to exit the race immediately.
Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former conservative Republican who became a Democrat more than two decades ago, secured the vast majority of the 500 voting delegates chosen this past weekend by Democrats in Maine's 16 counties. Most of his top rivals for the nomination backed him after dropping out of the race on Sunday, clearing his path to the nomination. While delegates on Jackson's slate are not required to support him at the convention, he is now considered all but certain to secure the nomination.
Jackson had campaigned alongside Platner during the primary and quickly made the case that he was the best-equipped candidate to carry the progressive and populist mantle that had backed Platner. Like Platner, Jackson has the support of progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and is backed by Our Revolution, the group born out of Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign. Jackson's platform targets working-class voters, advocating for raising taxes on billionaires, a universal healthcare system known as «Medicare-for-all,» abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and opposing military aid to Israel — positions that have drawn criticism from some Democrats and Republicans alike.
Collins, who is seeking a sixth six-year term in the Senate, faces a challenging political climate. President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings, persistent inflation, and an unpopular war with Iran have created headwinds for Republicans nationwide. Collins, known as a moderate Republican who has occasionally voted against Trump, recently received bipartisan praise for casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote. However, Democrats have targeted her for not regretting her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose vote four years later helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling. Additionally, following a fatal shooting in Maine involving ICE agents, Democrats criticized Collins, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, for her support of ICE funding.
Despite these challenges, Collins has a history of overcoming Democratic efforts to unseat her. In 2020, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon, the then-Maine House speaker, but ended up winning re-election by nearly nine points. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the midterms to retake the chamber, which they lost in the 2024 elections. Along with Maine, Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio are also rated as toss-ups in the Fox News Power Rankings.
The race has drawn national attention, with both parties pouring resources into the contest. Jackson's progressive platform has energized the party's base, while Collins is banking on her reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker to appeal to moderate and independent voters. The outcome of the Maine Senate race could prove pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms.
