5 minPolitics
Democrats See Blue Wave Building as Three Forces Threaten Midterm Gains
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats have 'the wind in our sails' ahead of the midterm elections, but polling undercounts, voter skepticism, and a GOP financial edge could stall a blue wave.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is expressing growing confidence that his party can retake Congress in the midterm elections, telling reporters that Democrats have «the wind in our sails» as national and battleground polling points to a favorable political environment. Schumer, speaking as the Senate adjourned until after Election Day, predicted Democrats are «on the edge of taking back the Senate.»
After nearly two years of President Donald Trump back in the White House and Republican control of both chambers, Schumer argued that «Americans are frustrated with higher costs and a government they don’t believe is working for them.» The GOP is also fighting political history: the party in power in Washington traditionally loses congressional seats during midterm election years.
Yet beneath the Democratic optimism lie three variables that could determine whether the advantage becomes a wave or breaks before Election Day. The first is a potential polling undercount of Republicans. Polling analyst Nate Silver noted that surveys «considerably underestimated Donald Trump and other Republicans on the ticket with him in 2016, 2020, and, to a slightly lesser extent, in 2024.» While Silver added that polls in the 2018 and 2022 midterms were essentially unbiased, this cycle has already seen high-profile misses in Democratic primaries, including overestimating Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s Senate showdown and underestimating wins by Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, state Rep. Angie Nixon in Florida, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary. Those miscues have renewed criticism of public opinion polling.
The second force is persistent voter skepticism of the Democratic brand. Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater, as do favorable ratings for the GOP. But Democrats are not faring much better. Their favorable rating hovered at 44% to 55% in the most recent Fox News national poll, and fell to 38% favorable and 58% unfavorable in the latest Wall Street Journal survey. «I think just because Americans are outraged because of how Republicans have failed them and made their life more expensive doesn’t automatically mean that they’re going to embrace and trust Democrats,» former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. Buttigieg, who is considering another White House run in 2028, stressed that Democrats must «make sure that our candidates get out there, make it very clear who they are, what they’re about, and what we would do differently.»
Complicating matters further, left-wing and socialist-aligned candidates have defeated more moderate contenders in several Democratic primaries, giving the GOP ammunition to portray all Democrats on the ballot as radicals. That dynamic is playing out in Michigan, Minnesota, and Florida, where El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Nixon all defeated establishment-backed rivals. In Texas, a trail of controversial past comments by Talarico is handing the GOP more firepower. Democrats in those four Senate races are returning fire by anchoring Republicans to Trump.
The third variable is the GOP’s financial firepower advantage. Republicans control the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the majority. With one month until Election Day, Democrats are treading deeper into red territory while Republicans stay mostly on defense. The latest Fox News polls show margin-of-error races in Michigan, a must-hold for Democrats, and in Texas, Maine, and Iowa, three seats the party is working to flip. An average of recent surveys also points to very close contests in Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas, where Democrats are playing offense, and Minnesota, a leading flip opportunity for the GOP.
Trump, for his part, predicts Republicans will outperform expectations. «I think we’re going to have a big surprise, because they don’t know what’s happening,» he told supporters at a rally Saturday night in Ohio, referring to Democrats. As the closing days approach, longtime New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley offered a note of caution: «I don’t think any Democrat is over optimistic after...2024. We all understand that anything can happen in the closing days, and we’re preparing for that.»
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