4 minPolitics
Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket now wager on which Trump official leaves next
After prediction markets correctly anticipated Democratic gains in Congress, traders are pricing the odds that Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles or Marco Rubio will be the next Trump Cabinet official to depart.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket favored Democrats to win control of both chambers of Congress on election night, and their forecasts for several Senate races proved accurate. That performance has strengthened the platforms' reputation among traders, who are now turning their attention to a different question: which official in President Donald Trump's Cabinet will leave office first.
On Polymarket, a market on the subject has drawn about $190,000 in trading volume. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth leads the field with roughly 31% odds of departing, followed by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at about 24% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at about 8%. Traders also put the chance of no Cabinet exit before 2027 at roughly 27%, meaning the market sees a better-than-even likelihood that at least one official will go before then.
Hegseth faces the most immediate political pressure. Democrats have pushed impeachment articles that accuse him of waging war against Iran without congressional approval, and a House vote on those articles could come as early as next week. Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican, plans to revive the effort after the party's losses in the midterm elections, signaling that the challenge to Hegseth is not limited to one party's opponents.
Wiles has drawn criticism as Republicans look for someone to blame for the midterm results. Caroline Sunshine, a former aide, called for her resignation on Fox News, publicly voicing a view that has circulated among some party figures. The White House has not indicated any change in Wiles's position, and the criticism has focused on her role in the campaign's outcome rather than on any specific policy dispute.
Rubio has reportedly discussed stepping down, but the White House asked him to stay. He has publicly rejected the idea of leaving, saying he plans to serve a full term. Speculation about his future has centered on a possible 2028 presidential bid, which has kept his name in the betting market despite his public statements. His position at the State Department is therefore being weighed by traders against both his stated plans and the political ambitions attributed to him.
The political calendar may also shape departures. Incoming Democratic majorities have said they plan to investigate the administration, with topics including the Iran war and alleged corruption. Such oversight could complicate Trump's Washington building projects and add pressure on officials already under scrutiny, since investigations can produce hearings, document demands and public testimony that keep controversies in the news for months.
The shifting political landscape is also visible in financial markets. Charter Communications shares fell about 5% in early trading on Friday after the company reported wider internet subscriber losses in the third quarter. Charter closed its $34.5 billion acquisition of Cox Communications in August, and the subscriber figures came as the company integrated that deal. Analysts expect tech policy to face tougher congressional scrutiny under the new Democratic majorities, a prospect that adds regulatory uncertainty for telecommunications and technology companies.
Source: fortune.com
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