4 minBusiness
Oil export data contradicts Trump administration claims on Middle East flows
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Monday's Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels, but tanker tracking data shows volumes remain below those figures and fell sharply after attacks resumed.
The Trump administration's claim that more oil exited the Middle East on Monday than before the Iran war is contradicted by tanker tracking data, according to analytics firms that monitor crude shipments.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a CNBC interview that more than 17 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and that adding bypass export pipelines meant more crude left the region than in pre-conflict periods. Prior to the war, nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil routinely transited the strait daily, with about 20 million barrels including other petroleum products.
Samir Madani, co-founder of, told Fortune that Wright appears to be counting ship-to-ship transfers over multiple days as a single day's volume. As the U.S. has worked to create shipping paths closer to Oman, more shippers are using smaller tankers to move through the narrow Strait of Hormuz and then transferring their cargo to larger vessels in the broader Arabian Sea, a process that can take days.
Madani estimated that 9.14 million barrels of oil exited the Arabian Sea on Monday, Aug. 31, including volumes through Hormuz and the United Arab Emirates' bypass routes from the Gulf of Oman. While that was one of the highest days of traffic of late, it remained well below pre-war volumes. The seven-day average stood at 8.27 million barrels, up from the 28-day average of 6.85 million barrels.
When hostilities resumed Tuesday, volumes fell to an estimated 6.81 million barrels on Sept. 1 and then to 4.63 million barrels on Sept. 2. "You can see that it is anything but steady," Madani said, noting that volumes fluctuate wildly day to day compared with before the war.
Wright also argued that blocking the Strait of Hormuz was Iran's "one card," saying Tehran is "losing that card." The White House defended Wright's remarks, with an official stating that the U.S. government and military "maintains the best available data related to oil products transiting the Arabian Gulf."
President Donald Trump said Monday that "many, many ships got through last night, with the Navy's assistance," adding that the U.S. has been "averaging 30 ships a night."
Earlier in August, energy analytics firm Kpler said Middle Eastern oil-exporting volumes had returned to about 65% of pre-war levels, including pipeline bypass alternatives. Those volumes could have risen above 70% by the end of the month, though Kpler did not have final August numbers readily available.
Regarding bypass pipelines, Saudi Arabia is now exporting between 3 million and 4 million barrels of oil daily through the Red Sea, which faces threats from Yemeni Houthi forces, or via the more circuitous Suez Canal route.
The global oil benchmark rose above $95 per barrel Wednesday after the resumption of attacks, up from $87 a week prior. Prices have remained below the $100 threshold largely because of China's reduced imports, increased U.S. exports, and the ongoing depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 44-year lows.
The U.S. average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline stood at $4.12 on Wednesday, the highest price ever heading into a Labor Day weekend when not accounting for inflation. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said this year's market has been "less about typical supply and demand, and more about uncertainty over how global tensions will affect the availability of crude oil and refined products."
